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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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KEYNESIAN MODEL

A macroeconomic model based on the principles of Keynesian economics that is used to identify the equilibrium level of, and analyze disruptions to, aggregate production and income. This model identifies equilibrium aggregate production and income as the intersection of the aggregate expenditures line and the 45-degree line. The Keynesian model comes in three basic variations designated by the number of macroeconomic sectors included--two-sector, three-sector, and four sector. The Keynesian model is also commonly presented in the form of injections and leakages in addition to the standard aggregate expenditures format. This model is used to analyze several important topics and issues, including multipliers, business cycles, fiscal policy, and monetary policy.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time flipping through mail order catalogs trying to buy either a lighted magnifying glass or a small, foam rubber football. Be on the lookout for small children selling products door-to-door.
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Cyrus McCormick not only invented the reaper for harvesting grain, he also invented the installment payment for selling his reaper.
"Lead the life that will make you kindly and friendly to everyone about you, and you will be surprised what a happy life you will lead."

-- Charles M. Schwab

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