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July 29, 2026 

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A POSTERIORI: A conclusion reached through logical reasoning based on facts and observations about the real world. This notion is closely related to the scientific verification of hypotheses and the identification of principles. A similar sounding, but opposite term is a prior, which is a unverified presumption made before an analysis is undertaken. For example, in the study of economics of crime you might assume, a priori, that people are basically "good", and conclude, a posteriori, that people are more likely to commit crimes when the threat of capture and conviction is lower.

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ABSTRACTION

Simplifying the complexities of the real world by ignoring (hopefully) unimportant details while doing economic analysis. Abstraction is an essential feature of the scientific method. Hypothesis verification, model construction, and comparative static analysis are not possible without abstraction.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a going out of business sale wanting to buy either a bottle of blackcherry flavored spring water or a travel case for you toothbrush. Be on the lookout for celebrities who speak directly to you through your television.
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Okun's Law posits that the unemployment rate increases by 1% for every 2% gap between real GDP and full-employment real GDP.
"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world. "

-- Anne Frank, diarist

ARIMA
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
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