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February 28, 2026 

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PEAK: The transition of a business cycle from an expansion and a contraction. The end of an expansions carries the descriptive term peak. At the peak, the economy has reached the highest level of production in recent times. The bad thing about a peak, however, is that it is a turning point, a turning point to a contraction. So even though a peak is the "highest" is not necessarily something we want. We would prefer never to reach the peak.

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AUTONOMOUS NET EXPORTS

Net exports by the foreign sector that do not depend on income or production (especially national income or gross domestic product). That is, changes in income do not generate changes in net exports. Autonomous net exports are best thought of as net exports that the foreign sector undertakes independent of income. They are measured by the intercept term of the net exports line. The alternative to autonomous net exports is induced net exports, which do depend on income.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time looking for a downtown retail store hoping to buy either several magazines on home repairs or a remote controlled sports car with an air spoiler. Be on the lookout for spoiled cheese hiding under your bed hatching conspiracies against humanity.
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Junk bonds are so called because they have a better than 50% chance of default, carrying a Standard & Poor's rating of CC or lower.
"Always make a total effort, even when the odds are against you."

-- Arnold Palmer

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