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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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POLITICAL GAME

The political system can be thought of as a game, a contest between two groups of players. Rulers are the ones who set the rules. Rulees are the ones who must abide by the rules. The political game, of course, has serious consequences, with winners and losers. The distribution, either concentrated or dispersed, of these consequences can have a profound effect on the game. The study of public choice provides insight into the economic efficiency with which the political game is played.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time calling an endless list of 800 numbers hoping to buy either a coffee cup commemorating the 2000 Olympics or a birthday gift for your grandmother. Be on the lookout for slow moving vehicles with darkened windows.
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During the American Revolution, the price of corn rose 10,000 percent, the price of wheat 14,000 percent, the price of flour 15,000 percent, and the price of beef 33,000 percent.
"I don't subscribe to the thesis, 'Let the buyer beware,' I prefer the disregarded one that goes, 'Let the seller be honest.'"

-- Isaac Asimov, Author

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