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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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MONETARY BASE

The combination of currency held by the nonbank public, vault cash held by banks, and Federal Reserve deposits of the banks. Also termed high-powered money, these are the three monetary components over which the Federal Reserve System has relatively complete control. Due to this control, the monetary base is often used as a guide for monetary policy. The monetary base differs from a relative monetary aggregate, M1, through the inclusion of vault cash and Federal Reserve deposits and the exclusion of checkable deposits.

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