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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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AGGREGATE MARKET SHOCKS Disruptions of the equilibrium in the aggregate market (or AS-AD model) caused by shifts of the aggregate demand, short-run aggregate supply, or long-run aggregate supply curves. Shocks of the aggregate market are associated with, and thus used to analyze, assorted macroeconomic phenomena such as business cycles, unemployment, inflation, stabilization policies, and economic growth. The specific analysis of aggregate market shocks identifies changes in the price level (GDP price deflator) and real production (real GDP). Changes in the price level and real production have direct implications for the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, national income, and a host of other macroeconomic measures.
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ORANGE REBELOON
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time searching for rummage sales hoping to buy either a flower arrangement with anything but tulips for your grandfather or a birthday greeting card for your mother that doesn't look like a greeting card. Be on the lookout for letters from the Internal Revenue Service.
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This isn't me! What am I?
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In the late 1800s and early 1900s, almost 2 million children were employed as factory workers.
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"Good plans shape good decisions. That's why good planning helps to make elusive dreams come true." -- Lester Bittle, Author
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ARIMA
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
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