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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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CONTRACTIONARY MONETARY POLICY

A form of monetary policy in which a decrease in the money supply and a increase in interest rates are used to correct the inflationary problems of a business-cycle expansion. In theory, contractionary monetary policy can include selling U.S. Treasury securities through open market operations, an increase in the discount rate, and an increase in reserve requirements. In theory, open market operations are the primary tool of contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary monetary policy is often supported by contractionary fiscal policy. An alternative is expansionary monetary policy.

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