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A PRIORI: A presumption made before an analysis is undertaken, often based on experiences, beliefs, or deductions from seemingly self-evident propositions about how the world works. This is a Latin for assumption or axiom. A similar sounding, but opposite term is a posteriori, which is derived from observation or facts. For example, in the study of economics of crime you might assume, a priori, that people are basically "good", because that just seems to be part of human nature, and conclude, a posteriori, that people are more likely to commit crimes when the threat of capture and conviction is lower.

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ECONOMICS OF UNCERTAINTY

The study of the role that uncertainty plays in the economy and in the allocation of resources, with special attention paid to the analysis of risk. Key topics in this area of study and analysis are risk preferences (aversion, neutrality, and loving) and the provision of insurance. This study of the economics of uncertainty is part of the broader study of the economics of information.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a crowded estate auction hoping to buy either a T-shirt commemorating last Friday (you know why) or a rotisserie oven that can also toast bread. Be on the lookout for neighborhood pets, especially belligerent parrots.
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Francis Bacon (1561-1626), a champion of the scientific method, died when he caught a severe cold while attempting to preserve a chicken by filling it with snow.
"Every time you win, it diminishes the fear a little bit. You never really cancel the fear of losing; you keep challenging it. "

-- Arthur Ashe, tennis player

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