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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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AGGREGATE SUPPLY DETERMINANTS An assortment of ceteris paribus factors that affect short-run and long-run aggregate supply, but which are assumed constant when the short-run and long-run aggregate supply curves are constructed. Changes in any of the aggregate supply determinants cause the short-run and/or long-run aggregate supply curves to shift. While a wide variety of specific ceteris paribus factors can cause the aggregate supply curves to shift, they are commonly grouped into three broad categories--resource quantity, resource quality, and resource price.
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GREEN LOGIGUIN
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time going from convenience store to convenience store trying to buy either a remote controlled World War I bi-plane or a wall poster commemorating Thor Heyerdahl's Pacific crossing aboard the Kon-Tiki. Be on the lookout for telephone calls from former employers.
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This isn't me! What am I?
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The 22.6% decline in stock prices on October 19, 1987 was larger than the infamous 12.8% decline on October 29, 1929.
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"My philosophy of life is that if we make up our mind what we are going to make of our lives, then work hard toward that goal, we never lose - somehow we win out." -- President Ronald Reagan
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BIS
Bank for International Settlements
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