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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND MARKET SUPPLY

The short-run aggregate supply curve, or SRAS curve, has similarities to, but differences from, the standard market supply curve. Both are positively sloped. Both relate price and quantity. However, the market supply curve is positively sloped due to the law of diminishing marginal returns and the short-run aggregate supply curve is positively-sloped due to inflexible prices, the pool of natural unemployment, and imbalances in real resource prices.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time looking for the new strip mall out on the highway hoping to buy either several magazines on time travel or 500 feet of telephone cable. Be on the lookout for the last item on a shelf.
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The Dow Jones family of stock market price indexes began with a simple average of 11 stock prices in 1884.
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