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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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NET INTEREST

The official item in the National Income and Product Accounts maintained by the Bureau of Economics Analysis measuring interest earned by the household sector for supplying capital services. This is one of five official factor payments making up national income. The other four are compensation of employees, rental income of persons, corporate profits, and proprietors' income. Net interest is usually less than 10 percent of national income, typically in the 6 to 8 percent range.

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