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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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TAX EFFECTS The primary reason that governments collect taxes from members of society is to finance government operations and provide public goods. However, taxes also create disincentives to engage in the taxed activity, which causes a change in the allocation of resources. This two consequences of taxes are summarized in two essential tax effects -- the revenue effect and the allocation effect. While all taxes have both, the key to effective government is minimize the allocation effect if the goal is to generate revenue and to minimize the revenue effect if the goal is to change the allocation of resources.
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The word "fiscal" is derived from a Latin word meaning "moneybag."
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"Carpe diem! Rejoice while you are alive; enjoy the day; live life to the fullest; make the most of what you have. It is later than you think." -- Horace, Ancient Roman poet
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CSO
Central Statistical Office
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