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July 31, 2026 

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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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MONEY CREATION

The process in which banks increase the amount of funds in checkable deposits (and thus the M1 money supply) by using reserves to make loans. Money creation is made possible through fractional-reserve banking. Because banks keep only a fraction of deposits as reserves, extra reserves can be used to back up and create additional checkable deposits (money) that did not previously exist. Government policy makers (the Federal Reserve System) rely on the money creation process when conducting monetary policy. Money creation by banks is a modern alternative to printing paper currency.

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