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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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PRICE INDEX

A measure of the average of a group of prices calculated as a ratio to prices in a given time period (that is, a base year). A price index is primarily used to compare relative prices, or changes in the group prices over time. Such an index is a handy indicator of overall price trends. Two common price indexes that surface in the study of macroeconomics are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the GDP price deflator. Both are used to indicate the macroeconomy's average price level and to estimate the inflation rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow), Standard & Poor's 500, and the NASDAQ are well-known indexes of stock market prices.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time going from convenience store to convenience store looking to buy either a birthday gift for your aunt or a pair of leather sandals that won't cause blisters. Be on the lookout for gnomes hiding in cypress trees.
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