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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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POTENTIAL REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

The total real output (real gross domestic product) that the economy can produce if resources are fully employed. In theory this means that the economy is operating ON the production possibilities frontier. Full employment is generally indicated by achieving what is termed the natural unemployment rate. If the economy is at full employment then actual real gross domestic product is equal to potential real gross domestic product and the actual unemployment rate is equal to the natural unemployment rate. The macroeconomy is thus living up to its potential.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a garage sale seeking to buy either a birthday gift for your mother or a weathervane with a horse on top. Be on the lookout for the happiest person in the room.
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A half gallon milk jug holds about $50 in pennies.
"In every man's life there lies latent energy. There is, however, a spark that, if kindled, will set the whole being afire, and he will become a human dynamo, capable of accomplishing almost anything to which he aspires. "

-- James Cash Penney, retailer

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