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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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BUSINESS CYCLES The recurring, but irregular, expansions and contractions of economic activity in the macroeconomy. While business cycles are frequently measured by real gross domestic product, they show up in many aggregate measures of economic activity, including the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, consumption expenditures, and tax collections, to name just a few. The study of macroeconomics is largely the study of business cycles. Macroeconomic theories seek to understand business cycles and macroeconomic policies seek to correct the problems of business cycles.
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BROWN PRAGMATOX
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time surfing the Internet seeking to buy either car battery jumper cables or a dozen high trajectory optic orange golf balls. Be on the lookout for telephone calls from former employers.
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This isn't me! What am I?
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Cyrus McCormick not only invented the reaper for harvesting grain, he also invented the installment payment for selling his reaper.
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"When we do the best we can, we never know what miracle is wrought in our life or in the life of another. " -- Helen Keller, lecturer, author
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AEA
American Economic Association
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