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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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BALANCED-BUDGET MULTIPLIER

A measure of the change in aggregate production caused by equal changes in government purchases and taxes. The balanced-budget multiplier is equal to one, meaning that the multiplier effect of a change in taxes offsets all but the initial production triggered by the change in government purchases. This multiplier is the combination of the expenditures multiplier, which measures the change in aggregate production caused by changes in an autonomous aggregate expenditure, and the tax multiplier which measures the change in aggregate production caused by changes in taxes.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time driving to a factory outlet looking to buy either a case of blank recordable DVDs or a pair of red goulashes with shiny buckles. Be on the lookout for deranged pelicans.
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The standard "debt" notation I.O.U. does not mean "I owe you," but actually stands for "I owe unto..."
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