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FALLACY OF FALSE CAUSE: The logical fallacy of arguing that two events that are correlated (that is, happen at about the same time), are assumed to have a causal connection. In other words, one event causes the other. This was one of the more common fallacies committed by ancient ancestors. During the last full moon, your dog died. Obviously the full moon killed your dog. While this might seem reasonable to anyone spending their lives eating mastodon meat and sleeping in caves, it's actually the fallacy of false cause.
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AUTONOMOUS GOVERNMENT PURCHASES Government purchases by the government sector that do not depend on income or production (especially national income or gross domestic product). That is, changes in income do not generate changes in government purchases. Autonomous government purchases are best thought of as government purchases that the government sector undertake independent of income. They are measured by the intercept term of the government purchases line. The alternative to autonomous government purchases is induced government purchases, which do depend on income.
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Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen were the 1st Nobel Prize winners in Economics in 1969.
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"My father used to say to me, „Whenever you get into a jam, whenever you get into a crisis or an emergency . . .become the calmest person in the room and you'll be able to figure your way out of it. " -- Rudolph Giuliani
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BVAR
Bayesian VAR (Vector Autoregression)
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