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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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SHORTAGE

A condition in the market in which the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied at the existing price. Because buyers are unable to buy as much of the good as they want, a shortage generally causes an increase in the market price, which then acts to restore equilibrium. A shortage, which also goes by the terms excess demand and sellers' market, is one of two basic states of disequilibrium for the market. The other is surplus.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time wandering around the shopping mall hoping to buy either a Boston Red Sox baseball cap or a square lamp shade with frills along the bottom. Be on the lookout for gnomes hiding in cypress trees.
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