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IDENTIFICATION LAG: In the context of economic policies, the time between a shock to the economy and realization that the shock has occurred. This is one of several policy lags that limit the effectiveness of stabilization policies designed to correct business-cycle fluctuations. This is also one of two inside lags. The other is an implementation lag. Also termed recognition lag, the identification lag emerges due to the time needed to measure economic activity. While the lag is generally positive, it actually can be negative through accurate forecasting techniques. When negative policies can be undertaken to correct a problem before it occurs.
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INFLATION PROBLEMS Two notable problems are associated with inflation--uncertainty and haphazard redistribution. Inflation, especially inflation that varies from month to month and year to year, makes long-term planning quite difficult. Prices, wages, taxes, interest rates, and other nominal values that enter into consumer, business, and government planning decisions can be significantly affected by inflation. Moreover, inflation tends to redistribute income and wealth in a haphazard manner--some people win and some people lose. This redistribution might not be that desired by society, failing to promote any of the basic economic goals of efficiency, equity, stability, growth, or full-employment.
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PURPLE SMARPHIN
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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time visiting every yard sale in a 30-mile radius trying to buy either a replacement battery for your pocket calculator or a how-to book on home remodeling. Be on the lookout for crowded shopping malls.
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The Dow Jones family of stock market price indexes began with a simple average of 11 stock prices in 1884.
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"Lord, where we are wrong, make us willing to change; where we are right, make us easy to live with. " -- Peter Marshall, US Senate chaplain
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IBS
International Bank for Settlements
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