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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES

Spending by the government sector including both the purchase of final goods and services, or gross domestic product, and transfer payments. Government expenditures are used by the government sector to undertake key functions, such as national defense and education. These expenditures are financed with a combination of taxes and borrowing.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time wandering around the shopping mall trying to buy either decorative picture frames or storage boxes for your income tax returns. Be on the lookout for the last item on a shelf.
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Okun's Law posits that the unemployment rate increases by 1% for every 2% gap between real GDP and full-employment real GDP.
"No man, for any considerable time, can wear one face to himself and another to the multitude without finally getting bewildered as to which may be true."

-- Nathanial Hawthorne, Author

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Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee
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