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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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PHYSICAL WEALTH, AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES DETERMINANT

One of several specific aggregate expenditures determinants assumed constant when the aggregate expenditures line is constructed, and that shifts the aggregate expenditures line when it changes. A decrease in physical wealth causes an increase (upward shift) of the aggregate expenditures line. An increase in physical wealth causes a decrease (downward shift) of the aggregate expenditures line. Other notable aggregate expenditures determinants include consumer confidence, federal deficit, inflationary expectations, and exchange rates.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a garage sale looking to buy either throw pillows for your living room sofa or a hepa filter for your furnace. Be on the lookout for spoiled cheese hiding under your bed hatching conspiracies against humanity.
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