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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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CIRCULAR FLOW

A model of the continuous movement of production, income, and the services of scarce resources that flow between producers and consumers. In particular, the circular flow is a model of the continuous production and consumption interaction among the four major sectors of the macroeconomy--household, business, government, and foreign--using the three macroeconomic markets--product, resource, and financial. The circular flow model provides a easy way of getting the "big picture" and of seeing how the key parts of the macroeconomy fit together.

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BEIGE MUNDORTLE
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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time lost in your local discount super center trying to buy either a video game player or an AC adapter that won't fry your computer. Be on the lookout for florescent light bulbs that hum folk songs from the sixties.
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The 22.6% decline in stock prices on October 19, 1987 was larger than the infamous 12.8% decline on October 29, 1929.
"God gives talent; work transforms talent into genius. "

-- Anna Pavlova, ballerina

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