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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.
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AGGREGATE SUPPLY DETERMINANTS An assortment of ceteris paribus factors that affect short-run and long-run aggregate supply, but which are assumed constant when the short-run and long-run aggregate supply curves are constructed. Changes in any of the aggregate supply determinants cause the short-run and/or long-run aggregate supply curves to shift. While a wide variety of specific ceteris paribus factors can cause the aggregate supply curves to shift, they are commonly grouped into three broad categories--resource quantity, resource quality, and resource price.
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PURPLE SMARPHIN
[What's This?]
Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time going from convenience store to convenience store trying to buy either a bottle of blackcherry flavored spring water or a travel case for you toothbrush. Be on the lookout for neighborhood pets, especially belligerent parrots.
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This isn't me! What am I?
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Al Capone's business card said he was a used furniture dealer.
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"Believe one who has tried it. " -- Virgil, Roman poet
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ARIMA
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
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