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FORECASTING: The process of anticipating and predicting economic conditions months or years before fact using statistical estimation techniques the model economic activity. Forecasting most often employs sophisticated mathematical models (with hundreds equations). However, specific measures (such as the stock market) or composite indexes that have been shown to lead economic activity (that is, leading economic indicator) are also effectively used for forecasting.
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AGGREGATE MARKET SHOCKS Disruptions of the equilibrium in the aggregate market (or AS-AD model) caused by shifts of the aggregate demand, short-run aggregate supply, or long-run aggregate supply curves. Shocks of the aggregate market are associated with, and thus used to analyze, assorted macroeconomic phenomena such as business cycles, unemployment, inflation, stabilization policies, and economic growth. The specific analysis of aggregate market shocks identifies changes in the price level (GDP price deflator) and real production (real GDP). Changes in the price level and real production have direct implications for the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, national income, and a host of other macroeconomic measures.
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The Dow Jones family of stock market price indexes began with a simple average of 11 stock prices in 1884.
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"Think not of yourself as the architect of your career but as the sculptor. Expect to have to do a lot of hard hammering and chiseling and scraping and polishing. " -- B. C. Forbes, founder, Forbes magazine
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NPV
Net Present Value
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