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BUSINESS CYCLES: The recurring expansions and contractions of the national economy (usually measured by real gross domestic product). A complete cycle typically lasts from three to five years, but could last ten years or more. It is divided into four phases -- expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Unemployment inevitably rises during contractions and inflation tends to worsen during expansions. To avoid the inflation and unemployment problems of business cycles, the federal government frequently undertakes various fiscal and monetary policies.

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RISK

The quantitative probability of different future outcomes occurring. The assignment of probabilities can be subjective (based on a "feeling") or objective (based on historical data). Risk is related to the concept of uncertainty, which is simply not knowing what the future holds. People have three alternative preferences when confronting risk -- risk aversion, risk neutrality, and risk loving. Risk aversion is key to the provision of insurance.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time waiting for visits from door-to-door solicitors seeking to buy either a battery-powered, rechargeable vacuum cleaner or a remote controlled World War I bi-plane. Be on the lookout for deranged pelicans.
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In the Middle Ages, pepper was used for bartering, and it was often more valuable and stable in value than gold.
"In a decisive set, confidence is the difference. "

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