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September 5, 2026 

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RECOVERY: A early expansionary phase of the business cycle shortly after a contraction has ended, but before a full-blown expansion begins. During a recovery, the unemployment rate remains relatively high, but it is beginning to fall. Real gross domestic product has begun to increase, usually rapidly. However, because the contraction remains fresh in the minds of many, it may not be immediately clear that the trough of the contraction has been reached.

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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Ten economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months BEFORE business-cycle expansions and contractions. Most importantly, these measures indicate peak and trough turning points about three to twelve months before they occur. Leading economic indicators are one of three groups of economic measures used to track business-cycle activity. The other two are coincident economic indicators and lagging economic indicators.

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PURPLE SMARPHIN
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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time at a going out of business sale seeking to buy either a rotisserie oven that can also toast bread or a flower arrangement in a coffee cup for your father. Be on the lookout for bottles of barbeque sauce that act TOO innocent.
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Parker Brothers, the folks who produce the Monopoly board game, prints more Monopoly money each year than real currency printed by the U.S. government.
"The only profit center is the customer."

-- Peter Drucker, educator

CIFE
Cost, Insurance, Freight and Exchange
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