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INFLATION PROBLEMS: Two notable problems are associated with inflation: uncertainty and haphazard redistribution. Inflation, especially inflation that varies from month to month and year to year, makes long-term planning quite difficult. Prices, wages, taxes, interest rates, and other nominal values that enter into consumer, business, and government planning decisions can be significantly affected by inflation. Moreover, inflation tends to redistribute income and wealth in a haphazard manner; some people win and some people lose. But this redistribution might not that desired by society, failing to promote any of the basic economic goals of efficiency, equity, stability, growth, or full-employment.
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POTENTIAL REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The total real output (real gross domestic product) that the economy can produce if resources are fully employed. In theory this means that the economy is operating ON the production possibilities frontier. Full employment is generally indicated by achieving what is termed the natural unemployment rate. If the economy is at full employment then actual real gross domestic product is equal to potential real gross domestic product and the actual unemployment rate is equal to the natural unemployment rate. The macroeconomy is thus living up to its potential.
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The wealthy industrialist, Andrew Carnegie, was once removed from a London tram because he lacked the money needed for the fare.
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"My father used to say to me, „Whenever you get into a jam, whenever you get into a crisis or an emergency . . .become the calmest person in the room and you'll be able to figure your way out of it. " -- Rudolph Giuliani
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BVAR
Bayesian VAR (Vector Autoregression)
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