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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM

Equilibrium that is not restored if disrupted by an external force. Few economic models have an equilibrium that is unstable, reflecting the observation that the real world adapts to changes and maintains a fair degree of stability. However, there are situations where an unstable equilibrium more accurately reflects economic phenomena. The alternative to an unstable equilibrium is a stable equilibrium.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time searching for a specialty store trying to buy either clothing for your kitty cats or a set of luggage without wheels. Be on the lookout for the happiest person in the room.
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Woodrow Wilson's portrait adorned the $100,000 bill that was removed from circulation in 1929. Woodrow Wilson was removed from circulation in 1924.
"If I'm selecting a group, the first thing I look for is a record of achievement . . . If (candidates achieve) in small things, there's a very good chance they'll perform well in big things. "

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A nth-order Autoregressive Process
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