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FORECASTING: The process of anticipating and predicting economic conditions months or years before fact using statistical estimation techniques the model economic activity. Forecasting most often employs sophisticated mathematical models (with hundreds equations). However, specific measures (such as the stock market) or composite indexes that have been shown to lead economic activity (that is, leading economic indicator) are also effectively used for forecasting.

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INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES DETERMINANT

One of several specific aggregate expenditures determinants assumed constant when the aggregate expenditures line is constructed, and that shifts the aggregate expenditures line when it changes. An increase in inflationary expectations causes an increase (upward shift) of the aggregate expenditures line. A decrease in inflationary expectations causes a decrease (downward shift) of the aggregate expenditures line. Other notable aggregate expenditures determinants include interest rates, federal deficit, consumer confidence, and exchange rates.

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