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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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NORMATIVE ECONOMICS

The branch of economics that seeks to recommend the way the economy should operate. It is the policy side of economics that is based on individual preferences and cannot be proven either right or wrong. A normative economic statement cannot be refuted by looking at the real world--that is, by testing hypotheses.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time going from convenience store to convenience store looking to buy either a large, stuffed kitty cat or a cross-cut paper shredder. Be on the lookout for gnomes hiding in cypress trees.
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In his older years, Andrew Carnegie seldom carried money because he was offended by its sight and touch.
"The shifts of fortune test the reliability of friends. "

-- Marcus Tullius Cicero, Roman statesman

NYBOR
New York Interbank Offered Rate
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