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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: One of eleven economic statistics that tend to move up or down a few months before the expansions and contractions of the business cycle. These leading indicators are -- manufacturers new orders, an index of vendor performance, orders for plant and equipment, Standard & Poor's 500 index of stock prices, new building permits, durable goods manufacturers unfilled orders, the money supply, change in materials prices, average workweek in manufacturing, changes in business and consumer credit, a consumer confidence index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Leading indicators indicate what the aggregate economy is likely to do, business-cycle-wise, 3 to 12 months down the road. When leading indicators rise today, then the rest of the economy is likely to rise in the coming year. And when leading indicators decline, then the economy is likely to decline in 3 to 12 months.

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AUTONOMOUS NET EXPORTS

Net exports by the foreign sector that do not depend on income or production (especially national income or gross domestic product). That is, changes in income do not generate changes in net exports. Autonomous net exports are best thought of as net exports that the foreign sector undertakes independent of income. They are measured by the intercept term of the net exports line. The alternative to autonomous net exports is induced net exports, which do depend on income.

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Today, you are likely to spend a great deal of time watching the shopping channel hoping to buy either decorative garden figurines or a wall poster commemorating last Friday (you know why). Be on the lookout for mail order catalogs with hidden messages.
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The portion of aggregate output U.S. citizens pay in taxes (30%) is less than the other six leading industrialized nations -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, or Japan.
"I've always believed that if you put in the work, the results will come. I don't do things half-heartedly. Because I know if I do, then I can expect half-hearted results. "

-- Michael Jordan, basketball player

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